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Kick Off: 1700, 26/03/2017
Stadium: Tofig Bahramov Stadium
TV: Sky Sports 1
Germany have won all four previous encounters against Azerbaijan and are long odds-on to extend that sequence in Sunday’s World Cup qualifier in Baku.
Azerbaijan did manage to get on the scoresheet in the last couple of encounters in the build-up to Euro 2012 but the hosts’ current form suggests they will struggle to break down Die Mannschaft on this occasion.
Looking at the Azerbaijan vs Germany odds, we like 23/20 for the visitors to prevail 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0.
Azerbaijan could have been forgiven for getting a little bit giddy after making a bright start to their Group C campaign by picking up seven points from their first three fixtures.
An opening 1-0 win at San Marino didn’t send any shockwaves through world football but beating Norway by the same scoreline and then holding the Czech Republic to a goalless draw in Ostrava did make the other teams in this section sit up and take notice.
However, Azerbaijan were brought back down to earth with a bump when they couldn’t cope with Northern Ireland’s high-pressing tactics and suffered a 4-0 drubbing in Belfast last November.
Robert Prosinecki’s side rarely looked like troubling the Irish and 11/25 for Germany to win to nil seems a fair price.
Germany are favourites to repeat their 2014 World Cup success after putting in yet another bold showing at a major tournament when reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2016 in France before going out to an inspired host nation at that stage.
Joachim Low has been able to bring through a few new faces during this qualifying campaign but Die Mannschaft have continued to perform with clinical efficiency, scoring 16 goals and conceding none in four straight wins over Norway, the Czech Republic, Northern Ireland and San Marino.
This fixture does come at an awkward time, though, with many players carrying knocks and strains heading into the business end of the season, plus a ‘warm-up’ game against England will have provided far more of a distraction than any usual friendly.
The vibes are that Germany will be content to grind out a win rather than seek to turn on the style, so 11/10 for the visitors to prevail and under 3.5 goals in the game is a good option.
Additional stats
Last World Cup qualifier result:
Northern Ireland 4-0 AZERBAIJAN
San Marino 0-8 GERMANY – Sami Khedira, Serge Gnabry (3), Jonas Hector (2), Mattia Stefanelli (og), Kevin Volland
Head-to-head: Azerbaijan 1-3 Germany, Germany 6-1 Azerbaijan, Germany 4-0 Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan 0-2 Germany
