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Kick-off: 1945, 18/06/2023
Stadium: De Kuip
TV: Channel 4/Viaplay Sports
Spain are fancied to prove just too sharp for Croatia in Sunday’s Nations League final at De Kuip in Rotterdam.
La Roja were runners-up to France two years ago but can go one better this time after seeing off Italy in the semis, following Croatia’s extra-time defeat of hosts Holland.
We think the favourites can get the job done in regulation play and Evens for that outcome is our first Croatia vs Spain prediction.
Croatia recovered from an opening 3-0 loss to Austria on home turf to top their group, taking four points off holders France and beating Denmark twice before gaining revenge over Das Team in Vienna.
The Blazers came through a thrilling semi-final against the Dutch at this venue, prevailing 4-2 at the end of 120 minutes.
Donyell Malen gave Netherlands a half-time lead but Croatia hit back by scoring with their first two shots on target after the break.
Mario Pasalic’s 72nd-minute goal capped a turnaround started 17 minutes earlier by Andrej Kramaric’s penalty.
But just when it looked like they could celebrate a place in the final, Noa Lang pounced to level things up in the sixth minute of injury time.
However, eight minutes into the additional period, substitute Bruno Petkovic put his side ahead again and he went on to win a penalty which Luka Modric successfully converted.
Modric commented: “It’s a shame we conceded the goal in the last minute, but then we showed the character again in extra time.”
Having finished second and third at the last two World Cups, this is a team which never goes down without a fight and would love to secure a first significant piece of silverware.
We still just prefer La Roja, though, so 3/1 for them to win and both teams to score takes the eye from the Croatia vs Spain odds.
Spain’s form during the group stage was up and down, but they showed great spirit to snatch a crucial 1-0 win away to Portugal in the final round of fixtures, with Alvaro Morata netting in the 88th minute.
La Roja got off to a flying start in the semis when taking a third-minute lead through Yeremy Pino but Italy soon levelled with a penalty from Ciro Immobile.
Davide Frattesi then had a goal chalked off for the Azzurri due to a narrow offside call and they went close again before the break when Rafael Toloi volleyed just over.
The second half lacked dynamism but both sides had opportunities and it was Spain who got the decisive strike in the closing stages.
Manchester City midfielder Rodri’s shot was blocked and substitute Joselu calmly dinked the rebound past Gianluigi Donnarumma.
“We must not let this opportunity escape now,” declared Rodri. “It’s not easy to get to a final and we’ve been too long without a trophy.
“Italy have to be amongst the very toughest rivals in Europe, or the world, and that’s why you saw us really celebrating at the end. We want to win this trophy.”
New coach Luis De La Fuente will have been pleased with how his team controlled proceedings for long periods and created the better chances, while the influence of Rodri was there for all to see.
Morata remains the focal point up front and 9/2 for him to break the deadlock in the decider is added to our Croatia vs Spain betting tips, along with 31/4 for La Roja to win 2-1.
Additional stats
Semi-final results:
Netherlands 2-4 CROATIA (AET) – Kramaric (pen), Pasalic, Petkovic, Modric (pen)
SPAIN 2-1 Italy – Pino, Joselu
Head-to-head: Croatia 3-5 Spain, Croatia 3-2 Spain, Spain 6-0 Croatia, Croatia 2-1 Spain
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