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Kick Off: 1500, 07/01/2017
Stadium: Stadium of Light
Sunderland have lost just one of their last five home games in the Premier League and their last three matches have produced over 3.5 goals combined. Jermain Defoe has scored three goals in his last two games.
Burnley hammered Sunderland 4-1 on New Year’s Eve when Andre Gray scored a hat-trick. The Clarets have still yet to win away from home in 10 attempts in all competitions. In the Premier League, they have drawn one and lost eight, scoring just three goals.
Sunderland have won just one of their last six games and picked up just one point from a possible nine.
The Black Cats are one of the best performers in the both teams to score market, especially at home where their record is 60%, and the odds are 9/10 that both sides will score. They are 6/5 to reach the fourth round and also 15/4 to win and both teams to score but their heavy defeat at Turf Moor on New Year’s Eve does not fill us with confidence.
However, goals have played a prominent part in the Black Cats’ last three matches and they are 11/4 to share over 3.5 goals with Burnley. Sunderland lost 4-1 to Burnley on the last day of the year and they will not want a replay with more pressing matters on their minds, like Premier League survival. The Black Cats will also be missing three players to African Nations Cup duty, so the team will have a slightly unfamiliar look on Saturday.
Burnley will be cursing themselves that they did not get the away monkey off their back after losing to a Manchester City team that played for almost an hour with 10 men.
The Clarets go into the game buoyed by their crushing win over Sunderland a week ago and knowing that with every home game they are inching towards Premier League survival. Sean Dyche’s men are 23/10 to force a draw which would still represent a great result considering how poorly they have performed away from home this season.
However, they are 11/5 to win and 23/4 to reach round four and for both teams to score. Burnley can afford to put out a reasonably strong team and their performances at Tottenham and Manchester City suggest they are getting closer to a win. If you are not convinced, Burnley have lost their last three away games by a single goal and the odds on one of the teams winning that way are 5/4. We’re expecting more goals in this game, so the Lead-Lose run of play market looks generous at 15/2.
Additional stats
Last result:
SUNDERLAND 2-2 Liverpool – Jermain Defoe (2 pens)
Manchester City 2-1 BURNLEY – Ben Mee
Head-to-head: Burnley 4-1 Sunderland, Sunderland 2-0 Burnley, Burnley 0-0 Sunderland, Sunderland 2-1 Burnley, Burnley 3-1 Sunderland
Team news: Sunderland trio Lamine Kone, Ibrahim Ndong and Wahbi Khazri are away on African Cup of Nations duty.
