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Match Odds: Wales 19/4, The Draw 13/5, Belgium 18/25
To advance to the next round: Wales 51/20, Belgium 7/25
Pre-tournament betting outsiders to qualify from Group B behind England, Russia and Slovakia, Wales have outlasted each of their mini-league stablemates.
Their clash with Belgium for a place in the Euro 2016 semis has them near-5/1 underdogs to win in 90 minutes, but safe in the knowledge (through their own experience) that their chance is greater than their odds suggest.
Group mates with the Rode Duivels in qualifying for both this tournament and the World Cup that preceded it, the Welsh last lost to them four meetings back.
Since that 2012 reverse (when James Collins was sent off in the 26th minute at 0-0), the principality have gone three competitive games without defeat against their quarter-final foes, holding them to two draws in Belgium and winning the most recent meeting in 2015 by a 1-0 scoreline.
Grinding out the majority of their wins in France by the odd goal and with Gareth Bale scoring most of their strikes, the Dragons look much the same team as when coming close to finishing above their opponents in qualifying
Whether that will be enough against a Belgium side that have hit eight without reply since losing to Italy – including a 3-0 win over the Republic of Ireland and the 4-0 round-of-16 triumph against Hungary – is another matter.
Yet, despite a long overdue virtuoso showing for his country from Eden Hazard against the Magyars, the feeling that the favourites have been flattered by both of their wide-margin wins so far is inescapable.
Going three games without defeat against a side with as much individual quality as Belgium speaks highly of both Wales manager Coleman’s knack for formulating an appropriate game-plan and his players’ ability to enact it to a tee.
On that basis alone, the 23/20 about the Dragons-or-draw double-chance wager in the match betting looks worth a helping of the hard-earned.
Counterintuitively, the manner in which Marc Wilmots’ side have become the tournament’s highest-scoring nation offers the underdogs further hope they can be frustrated and, perhaps, toppled.
Of the eight goals they’ve netted at the Euros, five came on the counter-attack, with four of them bagged when their opposition were chasing the game.
Two of the remainder were headed chances offered up on a silver platter by woeful marking, while the outlier was the long-ranger Radja Nainggolan lashed in off a loose ball to sink a deeply-limited Sweden 1-0.
Maintaining defensive concentration at set pieces and crosses and avoiding attacking in reckless numbers, as Wales have done in their last three tussles against the Rode Duivels, could leave the favourites struggling for penetration.
Recommended bet: Wales or draw double chance @ 23/20
Belgium have shipped twice all tournament and not for three games, with one of their concessions coming in injury time, as they chased an equaliser when 1-0 down against Italy.
Having rewarded under-2.5-goals backers in four clashes with Wales since September 2012, the 3/5 about a repeat looks a fair price.
Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 3/5
Gareth Bale hit the Welsh winner when the sides previously did business and their last-16 win over Northern Ireland was the first time he has failed to find the net in a match they have scored in for seven outings.
Recommended bet: Bale to score any time @ 2/1
Belgium struck three times in the last 13 minutes of their victory in the previous round and all but one of their four outings in France have seen at least one goal scored in the final quarter hour of normal time.
The latter statistic is echoed in Wales’ exploits, with only their 3-0 win over Russia immune from late baggings.
Recommended bet: Over 1.5 goals 75:01-Full-time @ 23/20
